Sunspot Cycle 24

Not looking good for a March 2008 sunspot cycle 24 start so now NASA has revised the prediction. It's been revised repeatedly before, so don't get your hopes up ....
They now say that May 2008 is a go. I say if you look real close to the graphic from Spaceweather, you see they predict that cycle 24 will be have a roaring start and a future that is as bright as 23. Me, I say I don't know. In the past when the cycle start has been late, the peak has been low. I also wonder how the sun is going to leap into action so quick.

But since it's all prediction, and we know how well those are working out for the temperature, I say we shall see. Man doesn't seem to be particulary apt at predicting the future for nature.

Meanwhile the sun is quite, with just a peep of a spot about every three weeks on average, kind of like it's been for some time now.

All Quite, Sunspot Predictions, Cycle 24

The image is from Hinode X-ray Telescope, October 21, 2007. A solar wind stream flowing from the dark coronal hole should reach Earth on Oct. 25th or 26th.

Current sunspot cycle, enlarged to show recent detail. To predict the turning is not possible, to be sure that an actual low turning-point has been reached there has to be a substantial rise.


The official NOAA, NASA, and ISES Solar Cycle 24 prediction was released by the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel on April 25, 2007. The Prediction Panel included members from NOAA, NASA, ISES and other US and International representatives. Press Briefings and presentations at the SEC Space Weather Workshop, plus additional announcements and information from the Panel are linked below. The Panel expects to update this prediction annually.

The Panel considered all Predictions of Solar Cycle 24 they found in the literature or received directly from an author. The May 24, 2007 List shows the predictions considered.

What is interesting about the current sunspot cycle, or lack thereof, is history has shown us, the sun is unpredictable. It can be really hot one cycle, generating lots os sunspots, and then almost go to zero during the next sunspot cycle for no apparent reason. The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, lasting from about 1790 to 1820. Like the Maunder Minimum and Sporer Minimum it coincided with a period of lower than average global temperatures.Historical context of sunspots over the last few hundred years.