Total Solar Irradiance

The elephant is missing from the room.

This Solar Irradiance Reconstruction is by Judith Lean, Naval Research Laboratory. Some supporting articles here and here from Steve Miloy's great site, Junk Science.

Now comes some new perspective from -- The Death Blow to AGW by Stephen Wilde.

It is true that, as the alarmists say, since 1961 the average level of TSI has been approximately level if one averages out the peaks and troughs from solar cycles 19 through to 23.

However, those solar cycles show substantially higher levels of TSI than have ever previously occurred in the historical record.

Because of the height of the TSI level one cannot simply ignore it as the IPCC and the modellers have done.

The critical issue is that having achieved such high levels of TSI by 1961 the sun was already producing more heat than was required to maintain a stable Earth temperature. On that basis alone the theory of AGW cannot be sustained and should now die.

Throughout the period 1961 to about 2001, there was a steady cumulative net warming effect from the sun. The fact that the TSI was, on average, level during that period is entirely irrelevant and misleading.

It is hardly likely that such a high level of TSI compared to historical levels is going to have no effect at all on global temperature changes and indeed during most of that period there was an enhanced period of positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation that imparted increasing warmth to the atmosphere. My link below to article 1041 contains details of my view that the sun drives the various oceanic oscillations which in turn drive global temperature variations with all other influences including CO2 being minor and often cancelling themselves out leaving the solar/oceanic driver supreme.

You should carefully read the linked works if you are really interested in the science of what is happening to Earth's climate. Leaving out the obvious influence of the sun is ludicrous in any climate modelling endeavour. Remember, models are not science, they are just predictions, anyone can make predictions, fewer can do rigorous science.