Labor Force Participation Rate Remains At 25 Year Low 64.2%, Birth/Death Adjustment: +112,000

Take away slug from the BLS report -- Labor Force Participation at all time low, just gave up, both companies needing employees and employees no longer looking for jobs ... LOL

Yipee the unemployment rate went down, uh huh, sure it did. Oh and BTW, there is no Social Security or Medicare TRUST funds, welcomes the the world of myths. FDR broke the news to the Supreme Court, told them it was all a general tax, way back when -- But the government, they told the people there were trust funds, but then they have spent all the money. There is nothing there, zip nada, just a ponzi scheme.

Tyler Durden's picture

Wonder why the unemployment rate is at an artificially low 8.9%? Three simple words: Labor Force Participation. At 64.2%, it was unchanged from last month, and continues to be at a 25 year low. Should the LFP return to its 25 trendline average of 66.1%, the unemployment rate would be 11.6%. And indicatively, the Birth/Death adjustment was +112,000.

So if you reduce the size of the pool of jobs artificially, you get a better unemployment rate, simple math -- But you have done exactly nothing.

Gallup, who decides not to play the game, puts unemployment at 10.3% and underemployment at an astounding 19.9%. The reason for the difference in numbers is because companies have just given up trying to offer jobs because they don't have the money to do so. So these jobs just drop off the roles. The labor force does the same, they just give up looking, and that is what the very high 19.9% means.

So if you missed the real Jimmy Carter, welcome to the rerun.

Here is the Gallup truth  ...  Gallup of all companies, soldiers on with the truth. Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.3% in February — up from 9.8% at the end of January. The U.S. unemployment rate is now essentially the same as the 10.4% at the end of February 2010. Gallup puts “total unemployment plus under employments at a Cateresque 19.9 %.

Gallup: Unemployment Rate Up in January to 9.8%

Gallup: Unemployment Rate Up in January to 9.8%

Oopsie doopsie duh-bamma, the lies just don't last. Most economists now say the government figures are just jiggled feel good lies, so they do their own.

But more importantly, not-seasonally adjusted U-6 surged from 16.6% to 17.3%! As many more people just give up looking. Which explains why the Government lies and comes up with a 9% unemployment, inspire of only 36,000 new jobs produced -- Huge Miss To +146,000 Expectations. Most say you need +200,000 new jobs to keep even.

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.0" at this rate we'll have a surplus of jobs next year without anyone actually working -- Astonishing how few jobs you get for $1,400,000,000,000 new debt per year.

And here comes inflation ...

With the oil price, predicted to breach $100/barrel, will at that level be about three times the low reached in December 2008, when Obama took office ... I guess stopping offshore drilling in the USA and chasing all the rigs out of US waters has had the intended effect hey. BTW: Did you know the Judge issued a contempt of court ruling this Monday? -- Seems he took notice of the duh-bamma lies that the original moratorium were based on, and ordered damages and legal fees be paid.

On food prices, the United Nations sounded the alarm in January, pointing out that prices were at record levels. The year-on-year increase was more than 30%, although some products, notably wheat, shot up by much more than that -- Who eats wheat anyway? Uh Egyptians do.

Then There Is The Unemployment Data

Expectation of 405,000 ... Actual: 454,000!  The BLS calls it a "weather related backlog." Read - snow. Shall we just call it what it is --- Stagflation, baby. 

Non-seasonally adjusted number came at 482,399, as 161,913 people fell off extended benefits. Continuing claims: 3,991K on expectations of 3,873K. The actual unemployment is north of 17%.

To complete the stagflationary picture, durable goods decreased by 2.5% on expectations of plus 1.5%, down from -0.1%. "This decrease, down four of the last five months, followed a 0.1 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent."

The Fed is buying our treasury bonds, because no else will... So is QE3 next?

Unemployment For Young Highest Since 1948

The unemployment rate for workers ages 16 to 29 was 15.2% in March, the highest rate since 1948, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unemployment

Total Non-Seasonally adjusted insurance claims (consisting of Initial, Continuing and EUC claims) hit another record of 11,268,100. Make of this data what you will. We are confident the objective, mainstream media will find a way to spin this favorably:

Graph from here: The only number that matters is the BLS U-3 number. The lamestream media will make sure of that. While BLS U-6 is the real national unemployment rate. The BLS table is here:

Job Losses Mount

New jobless claims jump unexpectedly to 627,000; continuing claims rise to 6.74 million.

Weekly new jobless claims jumped to 627,000 for the week, stubbornly remaining above 600,00, while total benefit rolls climbed to 6.7 million. The numbers weren't way out of line with what was expected, but we're kind of at that point, with unemployment, where everyone is secretly hoping that it's not that bad.

Thing is, it is that bad. There are no gren shoots on that front yet. Nobody is hiring or creating new jobs, meaning all kidns of repurcussions from taxes, to the housing market to credit cards.

Hey, I have an idea, lets add a massive energy tax, the people will hardly notice.

Florida Unemployment Jumps To 10.2% for May 2009.

The Labor Department reported Friday that 48 states and the District of Columbia saw employment conditions deteriorate last month. Florida’s unemployment rate rose again in May.

The seasonally adjusted rate for May is 10.2 percent. That translates to 943,000 unemployed out of a labor force of 9.2 million, according to the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation.

Nationwide, the unemployment rate is 9.4 percent.

The state’s unemployment rate is up 4.4 percentage points from the same period a year ago. The last time the rate was higher was October 1975, when it was 11 percent.

State by State May 2009 top unemployment:

• Michigan -- 14.1%
• Oregon -- 12.4%
• Rhode Island -- 12.1&
• South Carolina -- 12.1%
• California -- 11.5%
• Nevada -- 11.3%

Nationwide May unemployment by the new accounting way was 9.4%. By the old accounting way, 15.8%. The old way is counting all people unemployed, what is old about that? Nothing, the new way just lowers the numbers for the sheep.

Source here, it's a really a purposely confused article, designed to obfuscate and hide the facts, which are dismal at best.

Jobs, Pennies

It's all jive talk from Obama:

Jobless Claims Rise, As the Recovery Continues -- Huh ?

There seems to be a mystery between what govenment says and what the economy does. More Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment insurance last week, and the total number of workers receiving benefits rose to a record, signs the job market continues to weaken even as the economic slump eases -- Seems to be inconsistent doesn't it.

Initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 631,000 in the week ended May 16, from a revised 643,000 the prior week that was higher than initially estimated, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The total number of people collecting benefits rose to 6.66 million, a record reading for a 16th straight week, and a sign companies are still not hiring.

Job losses are likely to continue after Chrysler LLC filed for bankruptcy and General Motors Corp. may follow suit and terminate 1,100 U.S. dealers. The auto slump threatens to slow any recovery from the deepest recession in half a century and keep pushing unemployment higher.

``Layoffs associated with Chrysler's bankruptcy were likely the main factor'' behind the elevated claims levels, Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. ``Troubles in domestic auto manufacturing could push claims even higher over the next several weeks.''

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast claims would drop to 625,000 from the 637,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to median of 42 estimate. Projections ranged from 585,000 to 675,000.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, decreased to 628,500 from 632,000. Feel better now?

When 8.9% Unemployment Starts Sounding Good

The U.S. economy lost a less-than-expected 539,000 jobs in April and unemployment jumped to 8.9%, according to the Labor Department.

The fact that it is the highest since 1983, well ... So will the market go up on the news that only 539,000 people lost their jobs in April? Or will the numbers be revised when no one is looking next month.

Oh really -- The hype continues. Isn't it all about 'sounding good'. There are now about 6.4 million unemployed workers.

Most of the improvement came from the government hiring temporary workers for the White House run census. As I understand it, the voter fraud group ACORN is participating in the census.

Update: The Wall Street Journal made an this point in its coverage of this jobs report:

Still, even though the decline was the smallest in six months, a good deal of the improvement came from temporary government hiring in advance of next year's Census.

How many media outlets will report that 72,000 government jobs were added to the total?