Monday, April 13, 2009

How Are We Doing

As any engineer will know, if you make predictions, it's best to keep current with how you are doing -- Against those predictions. That way, you may know if your predictions, and predictive ability are worthless. Such is the case with man caused global warming. The very first warming alarmisms was spread by the UN IPCC back in 1980, UN IPCC AR1 was published in 1990 -- Curiously enough, when the natural temperature began rising. I assume it was believed that this was the best timing to cause the most public alarm.

The big temperature picture. Graph and insight from Dr Syun Akasofu
(2009 International Conference on Climate Change, New York, March 2009).

The global temperature has been rising at a steady trend rate of 0.5°C per century since the end of the little ice age in the 1700s (when the Thames River would freeze over every winter). On top of the trend are oscillations that last about thirty years in each direction:

1882 – 1910 Cooling
1910 – 1944 Warming
1944 – 1975 Cooling
1975 – 2001 Warming

In 2009 we are where the green arrow points, with temperature leveling off. The pattern suggests that the world has entered a period of slight cooling until about 2030.
Perspective is wondrous thing, isn't it. And now that the natural Earth cycle has turned cold, will man caused global cooling be next? Recycle the 70s alarmism, since the very same players were behind the 70s 'the ice age is coming, for sure' in the 70s.

Climate alarmism is cyclical, it follows natural warming and cooling cycles.

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