Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Hurricanes, 2009

Global 24-month running sum time-series of Accumulated Cyclone Energy updated through March 12, 2009.

Very important: global hurricane activity includes the 80-90 tropical cyclones that develop around the world during a given calendar year, including the 12-15 that occur in the North Atlantic (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean included). The heightened activity in the North Atlantic since 1995 is included in the data used to create this figure.

As previously reported here and here at Climate Audit, and chronicled at my Florida State Global Hurricane Update page, both Northern Hemisphere and overall Global hurricane activity has continued to sink to levels not seen since the 1970s. Even more astounding, when the Southern Hemisphere hurricane data is analyzed to create a global value, we see that Global Hurricane Energy has sunk to 30-year lows, at the least. Since hurricane intensity and detection data is problematic as one goes back in time, when reporting and observing practices were different than today, it is possible that we underestimated global hurricane energy during the 1970s. See notes at bottom to avoid terminology discombobulation.

More here at Steve McIntyre's site, Climate Audit.

The 2009 predictions begin in earnest -- Colorado State University's hurricane forecast team's latest prediction calls for 12 named storms, including six hurricanes. Of those six, two are expected to be major hurricanes with maximum wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The first of the storms in the Atlantic, which are named in alphabetical order, will be Ana.

In 2008, there were 16 named storms including eight hurricanes, five of them major.

Looks like ACE is predicting a quite year, since no one really knows what thew future holds, we all like to play parlor games, don't we?

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