Saturday, May 3, 2008

AGW Prediction Racket

The issue is simple.

It is like this: A horse-racing tipster predicted a horse would win the Derby, but that horse came in last. Then, the tipster said he had amended his prediction method and - using his amended method - he was confident that the same horse would win the Derby next year. Would anybody other than a fool believe him?

Now, compare that to the following: Several teams made climate models and all those models predicted global warming with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. None - not one - of those models predicted that global warming would peak in 1998 then stop for the following decade despite atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increasing by ~5%. But that is what has happened.

Now, one team has amended their model so it shows the cessation of global warming in 1998. Their amended model predicts that global warming will re-start in 2015. Does anybody other than a fool believe them?

And so it goes: Before long it will be only the fools that believe, because it will be obvious to everyone else that AGW is a fools game. Increased CO2 drives taxes, it's no more complicated than that.

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