2008 Hurricane Predictions

The last couple of years the hurricane prediction busines has been in a slump, too low, too high, just can't seem to get it right. Look I know the prediction business is one of averages and cycles, but it is not an exact science by any means. Then there is the 'Tiny Tims' effect, storms which have no business being counted are now tropical named storms -- To meet the prediction quota. Those storms if it weren't for full coverage 24/7 satellites would never even be know, much less counted in days gone by. Now comes 2008 and the new prediction runs, it's going to be a busier than normal season, yawn, blah, blah, blah, snore. What will be will be.

I take a pragmatic approach. I have a simple routine each season to load up with needed supplies and make sure things needed are in working order before July. Lately I have been upgrading the house protection systems, shutters, doors and such, that will continue at the same pace it has been moving the last few years.

Needless to say, people in hurricane country are becoming stressed out, turned off, with unnecessarily high hurricane counts and predictions that now come out quarterly. I say enough is enough, stop it all. Have one number come out with it in July and stop the nonsense.

Hurricane forecast stirs up skepticism

This could be a tumultuous year for tropical weather with 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, if storm prognosticators William Gray and Philip Klotzbach are to be believed.

The question is: Should they be?

In issuing their revised seasonal outlook for 2008 on Wednesday, Gray and Klotzbach of Colorado State University reignited a controversy over whether long-range forecasts like theirs have any validity.

No they do not. With modern communication if people don't know hurricanes are coming to their area, then nothing will make them aware. Forecasts that never come true have no effect on that.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, parent agency of the hurricane center, is scheduled to release its own seasonal outlook at the end of May. But it might tone down its usual presentation based on the concerns of hurricane forecasters that long-range predictions serve little purpose for the average person.

And now we know that global warming has nothing to do with hurricane quantity and strength, so knock off that crap as well.

Do you have any idea what the 'Tiny Tims' do to your insurance rates?