Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Sea Level Rise

With all the Al Gore hysteria out there, how do you reconcile an academy award and a Nobel Peace prize, when the recipient is neither a film director nor a scientist. Easy, propaganda needs no credentials.

Al Gore says that the sea level will rise 20 feet in the next 100 years, the IPCC says about a foot, but who may be right?

Some facts about sea level change. First off, most of the ice volume that has covered the Earth since the last ice age has already melted. Why the Earth exited the last ice age about 20,000 years ago is not known, but what is known is it was not man caused global warming. Nor was it CO2 driven. Those are inconvenient facts.

We are approaching the end of the cycle of ice age and temperate climate. So let us look at some of the best data that we have regarding sea level change in the last 20,000 years. One thing to note when looking at the charts is that the heavy lines are the smoothed lines, the smaller rapid lines are supposedly actual data points -- The sea level rise was not uniform, but fraught with many ups and downs in the process. Not the sizes of the rapid excursions, huge when taken referenced to the smooth line at the same point.

Also note that the sea level has risen about 400 feet since the warming started.

Total rise of about 20 cm over 100 years

Total rise about 15 meters over 8,000 years

Total rise of about 130 meters over 20,000 years

What do you call the Al Gore 'imagined' 20 feet, margin of error.

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