Monday, February 12, 2007

Correlation Does Not Equal Causation

One of the first traps junior scientists fall into, take a weak correlation and turn it into the presumed cause.

The Earth has been warming since the last ice age, or for about the last 18,000 years. The temperature has been gradually rising and about 10,000 years ago, it became warm enough for agriculture to be feasible. The seas have also risen, about 400 feet in 18,000 years. All of these trends continue today, until the next ice age. The computer projected temperature increases and the sea height rise fall neatly into the category, margin of measurement error. It's only been in the last 20 years that satellites have been able to somewhat accurately measure the Earth's overall temperature. Explain what you can tell from the observations of 20 years of climate data over a lifetime of 4.5 Billion years of climate events -- exactly, nothing.

I don't get the idea that CO2 is warming the planet when water vapor accounts for far more of the atmospheric elements which cause warming trends, that would be plain old clouds. The 0.2% total that man adds does not make a driving function of climate, it would very likely have to be much greater.

What do we know, the earth is getting warmer, the seas are getting higher and CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing -- These are established scientific facts. What is not fact is that CO2 causes global warming, nor the infinitesimally small part of Earth's entire greenhouse driving function that humans are responsible for, will cause more global warming. The known science facts simply do not support those conclusions.

Over the eons the Earth has spent far more of it's history as a snowball than as a temperate place like today. Like the vikings of a thousand years ago, deal with it, it's normal and natural. There are plenty of books and theories to explain natural warming and cooling cycles, sun, Earth's orbit, cosmic radiation and on and on.

But lets assume it is true, man is emitting CO2 and warming the planet. OK, so the only technology known to man that does not increase CO2 emissions is nuclear. All the alternative fuels that stand a remote chance of reducing emissions are a wash at best and mostly a net add to total CO2 emissions.

Embrace that nuclear solution, or fess up to an agenda that has nothing to do with the convenient bogey man of global warming.

The last go at this, the coming ice age put out in the 1970s by the same people, is more feasible than this global warming claptrap. A quick look at any long term temperature chart will show that easily.

Lastly, who says warm is bad? And BTW, who ended the last ice age 18,000 years ago?

Climate change is real, look at any Earth temperature graph and you can see for yourself. It gets hotter, it gets cooler, it never stays the same for very long. The current interglacial period of the last 10,000 years won't last forever. And that is the inconvenient truth.

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